In a report released yesterday, UBS suggested that 16% of car sales will be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2025. That’s nearly one in six cars sold worldwide. The number in Europe is expected to be closer to one in three cars.
These predictions are based on a UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey. Results were collected from ~10k consumers in the six largest car markets. The report identified that the reasons consumers give for not buying an EV are becoming less relevant as technology improves.
The top three reasons for not buying an EV were: limited range on a single charge; high purchase price; and limited access to plug-in stations. Advances have been made to counter each of these concerns. For example, those EVs released to the mass-market in the next 24 months will be able to achieve 250-300 miles per charge. Purchase costs are likely to go down as production costs are coming down more quickly than expected. The report suggests that a ‘quicker move to more efficient battery chemistries and simplified electronics result in $4k cost reduction for an electric powertrain by 2021′. Investments are being made to increase the availability of charging points.
The survey results also showed that the propensity to buy an EV has increased compared to last year. One in three survey respondents ‘is considering buying an electric car’. This was particularly evident in the fleet sector and among those consumers who are eligible for a company car. The report also noted that there was a substantial decrease in the popularity of diesel.
Results from China had a particular impact on the prediction. This is due to a number of reasons, including the new dual credit scheme policy which was passed in September by the Chinese government. This scheme makes the production and sales of EVs compulsory. There was also a particularly high level of willingness to buy an electric vehicle in China. This might be due, in part, to the fact that the country has the highest number of public charging stations in the world.
The following chart shows the steady rise in car registrations and market share of electric cars worldwide. The data, which includes battery electric cars and plug-in hybrid electric cars, also shows that at 1.10% of the market share in 2016, electric cars have huge potential for growth.
You will find more statistics at Statista